Advanced Strategies From the Pros
LOU KRIEGER
Loose Games
One of
the enduring frustrations about loose, aggressive hold’em games is that many
otherwise winning strategies — like semi-bluffing, when your chances to win
are based partially on improving to the best hand and partially on your
opponent folding when you bet — are useless in games where virtually nobody
ever folds, and you have to show down the best hand to win. Even more
frustrating are those occasions when you enter a hand as an individual
favorite against each of your opponents, but one of them — and of course it
doesn’t matter which one — always seems to catch a miracle card and beat
you.
There’s
no doubt about the fact that loose, aggressive games generate the most
action. More money is in play on every hand, and it’s going somewhere.
Are these loose, aggressive games special cases, where bad players have an
inherent advantage over good ones? Judging by the level of frustration
expressed in letters I’ve received from readers of this column, it seem so —
though in truth, we all should know better. After all, how can bad players
who enter pots with lesser hands, and stay too long when they do, be favored
over good players?
The
simple truth is, they can’t. But that’s not too say that very loose games
aren’t frustrating, especially when you’re playing good cards only to see
them cracked time after time by hands that any reasonable player would have
folded without reservation.
Here are
some tips for playing, and keeping your sanity, in extremely loose,
aggressive, no fold’em hold’em games.
Expect Big Swings
Although this is not a
strategic tip, it is probably more important than all the other tips
combined. When you play in loose games you are bound to experience big
swings in your bankroll. Because there are usually more players per pot,
chances are greater that good hands will be run down by lesser ones. By the
same token, the pots you win will be larger. While your win rate in these
games should be greater than it would in tighter games, the standard
deviation, that statistical measure of variability, will be higher — much
higher. Because these fluctuations will be much more pronounced than
any increased win rate, many players believe they are doing worse in
these games. In fact, they are simply looking at a geometrical increase in
the game’s short-term variability. In the long run, you ought to make more
money in loose games, providing, of course, you have a bankroll sufficient
to withstand more pronounced fluctuations.
If you
can’t live with with this degree of instability, or if your bankroll won’t
sustain extreme fluctuations, the very best tip I can offer is to play in
games that are not as loose, and not as aggressive. If you are a winning
player, you’ll eventually make just as much money. Although it will take
more time to accomplish, less of your bankroll will be placed in jeopardy in
stable games. And when you’re playing on a short bankroll, the most
important thing you can do is keep yourself in action. That means
protecting your bankroll at all costs.
Hands Change in Value
When you’re in a loose,
aggressive game, certain hands increase in value. Others fall. Hands that
play well against a large field, such as suited connectors, have a lot more
potential. Make your hand and you’ll probably rake in a big pot. Miss the
flop, and you can easily release these hands.
Big,
unsuited cards go down in value. Unsuited holdings like A-10, A-J, and Q-K,
do not play well against a big, aggressive field. With hands like these you
have to limit the field if you play them at all. When you pick up a hand
like A-J in early position, and you’ve noticed that all raising seems to do
is attract more players, don’t play it. On the other hand, when you pick up
big suited cards, they increase in value. And whenever you flop a flush
draw, you can play aggressively.
Sit to the Maniac’s Left
When you’re in a game with a maniac, the kind of player who wants to raise
every pot, position yourself to his left — so you act after he does. That
way, when you do have a hand and he raises, you can make it three bets. Even
in games where players routinely call raises, very few will routinely
cold-call three bets without legitimate hands. In fact, if you position
yourself to act after a player that raises indiscriminately and you get a
line on the kind of hands he is prone to raise with, you might be able to
loosen your standards a bit and gamble with him, as long as you are
reraising with hands that figure to be better than his.
Don’t Call With Hands You Wouldn’t Raise With
From early position in a loose, aggressive game you cannot afford to call
with a hand that you wouldn’t ordinarily raise with. One of the worst
feelings imaginable is continually finding yourself trapped for two or three
bets in loose, aggressive games with hands that are only worth a call, not a
raise. When you’re playing in a game where the majority of pots are raised,
you simply cannot afford to play “bargain basement” hands like 9-8s from
early position. Hands like these are only worth playing if you can see the
flop for one bet. Your investment is minimal and it’s an easy hand to
release. When the cost of these highly speculative hands is two bets — or
sometimes three — it is unlikely that the money in the pot will exceed the
odds against making you hand. If there is one thing that will increase your
standard deviation, it is playing marginal hands, where you don’t figure to
win too often anyway. Playing hands like these will cause much more
fluctuation in your bankroll than getting aces or kings cracked more often
than usual because more players are active in each hand.
If you
can stand life on the edge, if big swings can be absorbed by your bankroll,
and if you are comfortable with a high level of risk, you’ll do well in
loose, aggressive games. If these games are not suited for your
temperament, look for another. If it’s the only game in town, and you feel
compelled to play in spite of yourself, be sure to severely restrict the
hands you play from early position, be willing to reraise whenever you need
to thin out the field — and keep flopping aces.
The
question of when, and whether to raise is a strategic decision unrelated to
the stage of the hand you’re playing. You can face a decision to raise at
any point during a hand, from that pair of kings you’ve been dealt before
the flop, to that straight you’ve made on the turn or river.
Here are
five reasons to raise the pot in hold’em. Let’s look at each of them.
Raising To Get More Money In the Pot
What’s
the most common reason for raising? This one! You’ve got a powerhouse
hand. Someone bets, there are three callers, and it’s your turn to act.
What do you do? You raise. Of course! You’re holding a winner, and want
to get more money into the pot, since that pot figures to migrate over to
your stack of chips once the hand has been concluded.
Getting
more money in the pot is the most common reason players raise. But you
don’t always have to hold the best hand to raise. Suppose you’re on the
button with Ad-Kd and the flop is Jd-9d-6c. It’s a loose game. The blind
comes out betting and is called by 4 others. Now it’s your turn to act.
You’re getting 5:1 on your money, and with two cards to come the odds
against making the nut flush are better than 2:1. Since this bet has a
positive expectation, it is worth money each time you make it --
regardless of whether you win that particular time.
Since
that’s the case, go ahead and raise. You might as well make as much as you
can when you’re lucky enough to hit your hand.
Raising To Eliminate Opponents
You’ve
got a pair of queens. You’re in fifth position and no one has called the
blinds. Your pair of queens will play better against one or two opponents
than a whole slew of them. Fire when ready. Go ahead and raise.
Here’s
another situation. You’ve got that same pair of queens, and you’re in fifth
position. The player to your immediate right raises. What should you do?
Fire away! Make it three bets. If your opponent is the type who would
raise with aces, kings, jacks or A-K, A-Q, A-J, K-Q, K-J or maybe even
A-10s, the odds are against him having a pair bigger than yours. They favor
his holding two big cards. Go ahead and reraise. If the flop doesn’t
produce any overcards to your queens, you’re the favorite.
If two
overcards fall, you’re probably an underdog, and ought to give it up if your
opponent bets into you. If just one overcard falls and you’re heads up, its
a judgment call, and unless you’ve got a terrific read on your opponent,
you’ll seldom be sure where you stand.
If he’s
clever, and tries for a checkraise by checking the flop and turn, go ahead
and check behind him. If he bets the river, you’re going to call him
anyway, but you’ve also given him an opportunity to bluff with a hand which
is worse than your pair of queens, so calling is not that bad an option.
But if
you bet and he checkraises on the turn, you’re probably beaten. Fold.
Any time
you’ve got a hand which plays better against fewer, rather than many
opponents, raise or reraise to limit your opposition.
Raising
To Get a Free Card on a More Expensive Street
You’re
last to act with a Q-J. The flop was 10-9-4 of mixed suits and you’re
facing three opponents. The player who is first to act bets, and is called
by the others. Can you raise? Sure! If the turn card is not the king or
eight you’re looking for, the fact that you raised enables you to see the
river for free, as long as the bettor and subsequent callers each check the
turn. And if you make the nut straight on the turn, well, you’ve gotten
more money in a pot -- which by all appearances will soon belong to you.
Raising To
Define Your Hand
I recall a
game where I was last to act with kings, and reraised a very strong player
to my right. The flop was Ac-Kh-4s. My opponent bet, I raised, and he
reraised. Because I know his play so well, I was sure he would not have
raised if he flopped a set of aces. He would have checked the flop, called
my bet and checkraised on the turn. I put him on A-K, with a smaller
possibility he held a hand like Ah-Jh. The turn card was the 6h. He bet,
and I raised. He called. If he had flopped a set of aces, he would have
had reraised, since a set of aces would have been the best possible hand on
the turn.
Now I
figured him for A-K. Since my opponent also knows my play very well, I
didn’t believe he would have called with less than two pair. I was also
quite sure my raise told him I had at least two pair, and more likely a
set. When the 8h fell on the river he bet, I raised, and he reraised. It
was then I knew my assessment was wrong. He could not possibly have A-K.
He had to have entered the pot with a hand like A-J suited and tried to
steal the pot with his bet on the turn -- since he had top pair with a
reasonably good kicker as well as an opportunity to draw out if another
heart fell on the river. That’s exactly what happened. He made the nut
flush. Although my analysis was correct, I was too late to save myself any
money, and he won a big pot.
With the
benefit of the instant replay described above, you can see how each of us,
by virtue of our bets, raises and reraises, were defining our hands in terms
of what we presumed each other was holding. Although I defined my set of
kings against the possible hands he could have been holding, I incorrectly
assumed he made two pair. While this was a costly error in judgment, you
can learn something at my expense about how to raise and reraise to define
your own hand against what you suspect your opponent might have.
Raising
To Prevent a Free Card
Just as it
is correct in certain situations to raise on the flop in order to gain a
free card on the turn, it is also correct to raise in order to prevent your
opponents from getting a free, or relatively inexpensive card.
Here’s an
example. You hold A-10 in fifth position. On the flop only three other
players are active: the big blind, and seats eight and nine. The flop comes
A-9-7. The big blind bets. With no raise before the flop, there’s no way
to determine what he might be holding. You may be outkicked if he holds
A-K, A-Q or A-J. If he holds A-9 or A-7 or 9-7 you’re also beaten. On the
other hand, he may be betting with A-6, trying to win the pot right there if
no one else holds an ace.
While you
have some idea about the players in seats eight and nine, you’re not certain
you have the best hand. However, it’s fair to assume that if either seats
eight or nine had A-K, A-Q or A-J, they probably would have raised before
the flop. While they may have called with a hand like A-5 suited, its more
likely they’re holding connectors or a small pair. It is also possible one
of them flopped a set, although the odds do not favor it. If they did,
however, you’ll not hear from them now. They’ll wait and raise on the turn
-- when the bets double.
What should
you do in this position? While calling is not a bad idea, raising is
probably better. If the players in seats eight or nine hold hands like 10-9
or 9-8, they may call a single bet on the flop, in hopes of catching a
miracle card on the turn, or perhaps picking up a straight draw. However,
if they are reasonably prudent players, they will not call a raised pot with
second or third pair and little else to support it.
Is this a
form of raising to thin out the field? Yes, it is. But in this case,
you’re doing so after the flop has defined -- or partially defined -- your
opponents hands. If it’s the kind of flop which provides some help to your
opponents, enough so they might stick around in hopes of outdrawing you if
they can see another card for free, or for no more than a single bet, then a
raise which forces them to fold is correct.
If your
raise forces seats eight and nine to fold, you are heads up against the
blind, and you have the added advantage of acting last on the turn and the
river. You may also have the best hand. Unless the blind has flopped a big
hand, like two pair or a set, he is probably not going to bet into you on
the turn. This gives you the opportunity to check behind him. If he
isn’t holding much of a hand, and is an aggressive player, checking behind
him may elicit a bluff on the river, which you can easily snap off.
If he is not
a particularly aggressive player, but tends to call too much with too
little, you can bet the turn and the river without much fear of a raise, but
with the certainty he will call you with very marginal hands.
If, however,
one of your opponents has flopped either a set or two pair, your strategy
will fail. You’ll be called on the flop, and if you bet the turn you’ll be
looking at a checkraise. If that’s the case, you’re probably better off
releasing the hand at that point, since it is hard to envision anyone
raising with a hand worse than yours, unless they are fond of
bluff-raising. Since you just don’t see too many bluff raises in lower
limit games, you might as well assume you’re beaten and save your money.
These five
reasons to raise often act in concert with one another. While it is logical
to raise solely to limit the field, it is seldom worth a raise just to
define your hand -- and for no other reason. But by raising to limit the
field, you will always gain some information about how your hand stacks up
against the competition.
If, for
example, you’ve raised with a pair of tens and are reraised, there’s bad
news and good news in the air. You may well have achieved your goal of
going heads up against one opponent, but you may also be beaten. If two
overcards fall on the flop, you ought to assume you are beaten. The good
news, scant as it may be, is that you’ve learned enough about the quality of
your opponent’s hand to save money by folding as soon as he bets the flop.
Money Management
Let’s
look at each money management component individually. First, we’ll examine
the quit while you’re ahead theory. Proponents say that quitting
winners lets you take your profit out of the game, and not give back
money you’ve already won. Actually, this makes sense only if you decide to
quit poker entirely. If you plan never to play again, and you’re ahead in
today’s game, quitting does allow you to permanently put today’s profit into
your pocket.
But if
you quit winners today and lose tomorrow, are you any worse off than if you
simply played on, and lost what you had won earlier in the session? The
answer, quite obviously, is no. You’re not worse off. You simply pocketed
those winnings for a few more hours.
The same
logic applies to stop loss theory. If you are losing and leave the
game, ask yourself whether you plan to play tomorrow -- or even next week,
for that matter? If you answer “yes,” then ask yourself this. Do you
think you can win? If you plan on playing again and believe you can
win, is there any real difference between quitting now or continuing to play
today?
I don’t
think so. If the game is so tough that you don’t think you can win, you
shouldn’t play in it. If you regularly play in a game where you are not a
favorite, you can expect to go broke -- and it makes no difference whether
you practice money management. But if you are a favorite, it pays to keep
playing, regardless of whether you are ahead or behind at any given moment.
Here’s
the only facet of money management that’s true. If the game is good and you
are a favorite, continue to play. If the game is bad and you are an
underdog, quit! Never mind whether you’re winning or losing.
Of
course, the game can be terrific and you may not be a favorite for any
number of reasons unrelated to the relative difference between your skill
level and that of your opponents. You may be tired, emotionally upset from
an argument with your spouse, kids or boss, physically ill and not able to
concentrate, stressed out from work, traffic congestion or any other threat
to the sanctity of the human condition which might put you off your best
game.
You will
save yourself a lot of money over the course of your poker playing career by
following this simple rule: If you’re not playing up to your best
abilities, go home. The game will still be there tomorrow. If you don’t
quit, the game will still be there, but your bankroll might not.
Consider
this. Gambling successfully is predicated on putting yourself into
situations where you have a positive expectation. That’s why there aren’t
any professional craps or roulette players. In the long run there is no
chance of winning when the odds are not in your favor. You’ve chosen to
play poker because you believe you can find games where you are favored over
your opponents. While you realize that favorites can and do get beaten,
favorites show a profit over the long run.
Since one
of the key concepts to winning at any form of poker is game selection, why
would you voluntarily take yourself out of a good game, simply because you
have won or lost some arbitrarily predetermined amount of money? Now I
understand that if you’ve suffered a number of bad beats, and it’s one of
those nights that nothing seems to be going right, you might want to quit
even though the game is good. That's O.K., but only if you’re quitting
because you are no longer in the right frame of mind to assure yourself
you’ll continue to play to the best of your ability. Never quit just
because you’ve reached a stop-loss limit.
KEN WARREN
Join our
forum (click here) to discuss these tips. Purchase Ken's book
"Winner's Guide to Texas Hold'em Poker"
to study the strategies outlined here.
Players you want to play against:
Off duty casino employees
Talkative, loud, smiling, cheerful players
Beautiful women
Players with Tattoos
Players drinking alcohol
Players who expose cards
Nail biters
Young Players
Players who play out of a rack
Nervous players
Rich people
7 card stud players who just converted to Hold'em
Players you DO NOT want to play against:
Players who don't talk, smile or take their eyes off
the game
Drunks
Older, retirement-age players
Sand Baggers
Other good players
ERICK LINDGREN
Join our
forum (click here) to discuss these tips. Purchase Erick's book
"Making the final table" to study the strategies outlined here.
Getting to a WPT Tournament
Enter as many satellites as you can, type of satellite will dictate
your game plan
Be aggressive, use your large chip stack to bully smaller stacks
Keep track of your chip count, opponents chip counts and overall
chip count
Playing a WPT Tournament
Don't be afraid to engage your opponent with any positive EV hand
Always engage the weak opponents, try not engage the larger chip
stacks
Call raises from tight opponents with mid suited connectors
Remember, after the flop you are playing the player, not the cards.
Beginners make big pre flop moves, experienced players keep preflop
moves to a minimum
Avoid the 5 most common post flop mistakes
Bet sizes factors
During the late stages of the tournament switch modes to defend or
steal taking full advantage of opponents near the bubble
Do not risk your chips right after the bubble, opponents take more
risks to make up for lack of chips
After winning a WPT tournament
Write off your losses especially entry fees
Set aside about 40% of winnings for income tax purposes
Do not venture into other games...stick to what you're good at.
Remember how difficult it was to win it, don't blow it.
Keep within your blind limits after setting aside enough money for
all your necessities
|
